The biggest thing that came out of the Big Ten meetings today was the reference by conference commissioner Jim Delany to the shifting U.S. population.
“As far as the shifting population, that is reason, by itself, enough, to look at the concept of expansion,” Delany said. “In the last 20, 30 years, there’s been a clear shift in movement into the Sun Belt. The rates of growth in the Sun Belt are four times the rates they are in the East or the Midwest.” What does this statement that seems to have come from left field mean? Here are four possibilities:
- The Big Ten is going to make a huge push for Texas. Many folks, including me, have discussed the fact that their are two potentially huge prizes to be won in expansion, Notre Dame and Texas. While Texas was mentioned briefly as a Big Ten target, most of the speculation is that the conference will push Notre Dame to move. Maybe their main target is Texas.
- ACC schools like Maryland and Virginia may be expansion candidates. On May 13 Tom Dienhart of Rivals tweeted that those two programs were included in the latest buzz he was hearing. First of all, based on the ridiculous happenings in the state of Virginia during the ACC expansion earlier this decade I don’t see UVA going anywhere. Secondly, the ACC is on the cusp of signing an impressive deal with ESPN that will significantly increase the revenue each member will receive. A week ago this may have been a much greater possibility. The Big Ten may grab Maryland but I’d expect it to take a lot of hard work to do so.
- Delany is simply firing a shot across the bow of the SEC and their commissioner Mike Slive. It seems clear that the major battle for supremacy that awaits college football will feature the Big Ten versus the SEC. Delany is trying to make the SEC a little less comfortable.
- It’s a complete smokescreen. All of the talk about the South is simply to open up the possibilities and take some of the pressure off the Big East schools they are likely to invite along with Notre Dame.
In my mind the most likely option is the fourth one. However, if there is any reciprocal interest from Texas (and I have to believe somebody somewhere in the Big Ten knows if there is) then the first option is a no brainer.
Please, share your thoughts. What other options do you see?
I think that people also forget that if a conference wants Texas, they will likely have to also take Texas A & M in a package deal. Not knocking Texas A & M, it is just the political reality. The darkhorse school that should get more attention is Vanderbilt. They are an odd fit academically in the SEC, the worst of the BCS conferences academically, with only GA and FL even close to Vandy. They would be a good fit in academic reputation in the Big 10 and are members of the AAU. The CIC brings in BILLIONS of dollars so the Big 10 presidents will not ignore research funding of potential new schools.
Rick, you are absolutely right about Texas A&M having to be a partner with Texas. From what I’ve read they would be an attractive addition because of their excellent academics and ability to pull the Houston market. Vanderbilt is an interesting option. Like you mention their academics are top notch. I don’t think they can walk away from the SEC money though.
You’ve done it once more. Superb read!