Heading into the 2010 NFL season there are a lot of interesting storylines in the AFC South. Can the Colts hold on to the top spot in the division or will age at key positions finally catch up with them? Can the Titans maintain the momentum they had at the end of last season? Will the Texans finally take the next step and make the playoffs? Can Jack Del Rio keep his job by coercing a good season out of his Jaguars?
Division Winner
Indianapolis Colts
Admittedly, this is a boring and predictable pick. But, the Colts are as solid as they come, having won between 12 and 14 games in each of the last five seasons. Some of their personnel losses will hurt them, but with Peyton Manning running the show and a healthy Dwight Freeney, I expect the Super Bowl runner up to have another excellent season.
Will Peyton Get Another Shot at the Super Bowl?
Most Valuable Player
Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Despite a lot of youth in the receiving corps and a very minimal running game, Manning was still tremendous, winning his fourth MVP. The way he broke in new receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie was brilliant. Expect continued excellence in 2010.
Most Important Player
Bob Sanders, S, Indianapolis Colts
The story of Bob Sanders is well-documented. A highly-talented safety, he has a hard time staying on the field. In fact, he has missed 49 games while appearing in 47. Sanders is a critical piece of the Colts defense. If the 2007 NFL Defensive Player of the Year stays healthy, the Colts will have a much better shot at working their way back to the Super Bowl.
Offensive Player of the Year
Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
Considering the number of touches he gets (408 carries and receptions in 2009), at some point I think you have to start worrying about Johnson’s ability to stay effective and healthy. I think he’ll be fine this season though and will continue to be a huge part of the Titans offense.
Defensive Player of the Year
Mario Williams, DE, Houston Texans
Williams will rebound from last season, in which he played mostly hurt and had only nine sacks. In fact, I expect him to have a monster year.
Top Newcomer
Aaron Kampman, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Interestingly, this division does not have a lot of newcomers. These four teams will be depending on the development of the players already on their roster and rookies for improvement. Regardless, Kampman is a solid addition to the Jaguars. After tallying 37 sacks in the previous three seasons, Kampman was never comfortable with Green Bay’s 3-4 defensive alignment and only had three and a half sacks last season before going out with a season-ending knee injury. The Jaguars desperately need help with the pass rush and Kampman will provide some.
Top Rookie
Derrick Morgan, DE, Tennessee Titans
All four AFC South teams focused on defense in the draft. I like Morgan (not just because of his last name) to have the best rookie season of the bunch. He is very athletic and has a lot of promise as an NFL pass rusher. Another advantage he will have is playing time, as he should get plenty of it in Tennessee.
Most Improved
Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
The Texans are searching for a back that will step up and fortify their running game. With the season ending injury to rookie Ben Tate, Foster will be the man. In the last two weeks of the 2009 season Foster ran for more than 200 total yards and three touchdowns against the Dolphins and Patriots. If former star Steve Slaton is fully recovered from injuries and the fumbling issues that plagued him in 2009, he will certainly compete for playing time. But ultimately I think Foster will be the answer to Houston’s running game questions.
Most Pressure
Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans
After playing his way into the dog house and out of a starting role, Young resurrected his career by taking advantage of the opportunity to play given to him after the Titans crashed and burned at the beginning of the 2009 season. When he entered the starting lineup last year he had nothing to lose. Now the expectations will be much higher. Young’s offseason strip club altercation only added to the pressure.
Biggest Loss
Keith Bulluck, LB, Tennessee Titans
Bulluck was the second leading tackler for the Titans last year and also had three interceptions. It will be difficult for Tennessee to replace his production, but even more importantly, it will be almost impossible to replace his leadership skills.
Can the Titans or the Texans challenge the Colts for AFC South supremacy? Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.
Photo source: IAN RANSLEY DESIGN + ILLUSTRATION
I can only hope Arian Foster gives his post-game interviews in Pterodactyl. I agree with most of the picks. The AFC South should be a fairly easy division to predict.
I think the Colts win easily barring a Manning injury or nuclear strike. The Texans and Titans (featuring stud LB Stephen Tulloch as well as cousin Derrick) should be in the thick of the Wild Card hunt.
Thanks for the comment Ed. I agree this division does seem pretty easy to predict. That’s probably because the Colts are so darn dependable. Will be interesting to see if the Titans or Texans can take a step up from last year and get into the playoffs.
Although I am a huge Titans fan,(potential bias) I can’t get past the long-term trend that the Super Bowl Loser doesn’t make the playoffs the following year. I don’t remember the specific time frame, but this is an on-going trend. I don’t know if it applies, because all previous Super Bowl losers didin’t have #18. . . Colts do. I think the Titans suffer with the losses on Defense. Texans are a lucky 9 win team. Jacksonville will hold tightly onto the #4 seed. This is a Titans vs. Colts issue…I go with the trend and hope the Titans win the division.
You make a good pooint about the Super Bowl runner up William. Like you, I think Manning give the Colts an edge that the previous teams did not have. Two things bother me about the Titans – the losses of defensive leaders Bulluck and Vanden Bosch, and Vince Young. In my eyes, Young still needs to prove that he can be a consistently solid NFL QB.
to William:
who said the Texans were a lucky 9 win team. they were unlucky not to win several more with turnovers within the 5 yard line, multiple missed field goals to send them to overtime, etc.
I think Peyton has been upright too long, Time for the Texans to make some noise. I have them as the Wilcard.
Colts 11 wins.
Texans 10 wins.
Titans 9 wins.
Jags 6 wins.
danr, thanks for the comment. I like the Texans talent and I expected to have them take the next step to the playoffs. But then, once I factored in Cushing missing the first four games and their challenging schedule I could only find nine wins for them – http://agsportsblog.com/2010/09/02/afc-record-predictions/.
The good thing about them playing the top teams in the conference (Colts, Chargers, Jets, Titans, Ravens) is that they’ll have the opportunity to play their way into the tournament.
[…] Other than the Colts I got this division all wrong. I did call Arian Foster as the Most Improved Player in the AFC South. […]