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Posts Tagged ‘sweet sixteen’

So my NCAA Tournament bracket projections were not too stellar.  Two of my Final Four picks, Kansas and Villanova, let me down.  Plus I got a whole bunch of other games wrong.  Oh well, it’s time to move on…

On the eve of the Sweet Sixteen I’m taking a different approach to projecting the Final Four – I’m going to break it down by percentages.

West Region

Syracuse is definitely the favorite here.  I think Xavier and Kansas State are even at this point.  Xavier has been impressive in the tournament.

Syracuse 75%
Xavier 10%
Kansas State 10%
Butler 5%

East Region

I may be way off here but I think that Kentucky is going to struggle with Cornell.  The Big Red have been one of the most impressive teams in the NCAA Tournament so far.  With the loss of Truck Bryant West Virginia’s chances to advance have dropped greatly.

Kentucky 60%
Cornell 20%
West Virginia 10%
Washington 10%

Midwest Region

This region features the war of attrition.  Kansas is gone.  Georgetown is gone.  Kalin Lucas is gone.  The chips have fallen and Ohio State is left smiling.  I think the main reason Northern Iowa was able to beat Kansas is because of the two day turnaround after the first round.  They will not be able to sneak up on Michigan State.

Ohio State 65%
Tennessee 20%
Michigan State 10%
Northern Iowa 5%

South Region

This one is wide open.  Playing in Texas Baylor has a home-court advantage.  Duke seems to be hitting their stride when they need to be, although Jon Scheyer’s shooting issues are a concern.  Purdue has played much better than expected without Robbie Hummel and I think they have a good shot to beat Duke.  And, as Villanova learned, you can’t sleep on St. Mary’s.

Baylor 35%
Duke 35%
Purdue %20
St. Mary’s 10%

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