I’ve asked a good friend and one of the most knowledgeable sports fans I know to share his vast knowledge and project the 2010 ACC Tournament. His stellar contribution is below:
Tournament to leave the ACC feeling blue
By Mike “The Dean” Everett
The ACC heads into its 57th tournament with most experts saying that it’s a down year for the conference. A big part of the reason for that is the complete, utter implosion of North Carolina.
The Tar Heels, after all, have been carrying the ACC banner – and the league in general – in NCAA play over the past five years, going 20-3 with three Final Four bids and two national titles. Over the same stretch, the rest of the league was only 20-22 with no teams making it even as far as the Elite Eight.
This year, UNC won’t even sniff the NCAA Tournament, and while Duke is in great position to claim yet another No. 1 NCAA seed, the Blue Devils are no locks to make it out of the first weekend, much less get past the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2004.
The strange part about the league’s current condition is that North Carolina has arguably the ACC’s two best nonconference wins, a victory over Big Ten co-champ Ohio State, with Evan Turner in the lineup, in New York and the home shellacking of Michigan State in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge.
So will the Tar Heels rise up at the end of the season to make a miraculous run through the ACC Tournament and restore the natural order with a dramatic return to the NCAAs? Of course not, they stink. They could, however, beat Georgia Tech if the Paul Hewitt factor is strong enough.
Will that happen? Let’s find out with the absolutely unofficial and unreliable ACC Tournament predictions.
All games at the Greensboro Coliseum.
THURSDAY, MARCH 11
No. 8 Boston College (15-15, 6-10 ACC) vs. No. 9 Virginia (14-15, 5-11)
Noon
There’s not another tournament match-up that encapsulates the ACC’s down year better than this one. Virginia lost at home to Big Ten cellar dweller Penn State. B.C. was an even bigger embarrassment in out of conference play. It’s one thing to lose to a decent Rhode Island team at home, but Maine and Harvard (for the second year in a row?) – that’s pathetic. And four teams finished below the Eagles in the ACC standings? No wonder everyone thinks the league stinks.
As for this game, Virginia stumbles into Greensboro on a nine-game losing streak and with its best player suspended for the season because of classroom problems. Boston College is coming off a season-ending loss at N.C. State, but beat Virginia at home 68-55 in the game before that.
Another sign of the ACC’s poor season: Boston College shot only 43.5 percent from the field in ACC play, and that was good enough for second best in the league. Virginia was near the bottom at 40 percent. Joe Trapani, Reggie Jackson and Al Skinner’s flex offense will be enough to beat Virginia in a game few will be taking a long lunch to see.
No. 5 Wake Forest (19-9, 9-7 ACC) vs. No. 12 Miami (18-12, 4-12 ACC)
2 p.m. or 20 minutes after first game of session ends, whichever comes later.
Wake Forest snapped its four-game losing streak by holding off Clemson 70-65 on Sunday night, but that doesn’t mean the Demon Deacons have solved their problems. The team hit only two 3-pointers against the Tigers as freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart, continued to struggle. Al-Farouq Aminu bounced back from an awful two-game stretch (7 points total) to record his league-leading 20th double-double of the season, and the Demon Deacons used a big effort on the boards to knock off the Tigers.
Wake likely will need more of the same against the 2-3 zone that Miami prefers to play. Look for the Hurricanes to pack the paint, swarm Aminu and play off Ishmael Smith, daring the lighting fast point guard to beat them with the outside shot. If Harris and Stewart, Wake’s only legitimate 3-point threats, can’t recover their stroke, Wake could be in for a surprisingly tough game.
Miami, despite the 4-12 record, was competitive in most of its league games. One of the Hurricanes’ four victories came against Wake Forest, a 61-60 decision in Coral Gables. The Demon Deacons won the second matchup 62-53 in Winston-Salem.
Who will win this time? We’ll go with Wake in a close, low-scoring, ugly affair.
No. 7 Georgia Tech (19-11, 7-9 ) vs. No. 10 North Carolina (16-15, 5-11)
7 p.m.
This is the matchup of the two teams that have done the least with their talent this season. It’s not surprise to see a Paul Hewitt-coached team fail to reach its potential. Heck, that’s probably his most consistent coaching attribute. But Carolina’s disastrous 2010 is shocking for a team coached by Roy Williams, the man who entered the season with the best winning percentage among active college coaches.
The problem with both teams starts with their backcourts. Martice Moore is the closest thing Georgia Tech has to a true point guard and while he was great in Georgia Tech’s 68-51 rout of UNC in Atlanta, his play and his playing time have been inconsistent. Freshman Mfon Udofia isn’t yet comfortable running an offense, and Iman Shumpert is a score first guard who can give you zero as easily as he can give you 30, as he did in Georgia Tech’s 73-71 win at UNC in their first meeting of the season.
UNC’s backcourt has crumbled under pressure and against good ACC competition. Larry Drew has had his moments – both good and awful. Marcus Ginyard never recovered after his early season injury. Neither of UNC’s freshman guards, Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald, have proved mature enough for this level.
The bright spot has been the play of freshman John Henson after he moved to the 4 to take the place of the injured Ed Davis. Henson’s length could give Georgia Tech stars Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors some trouble. Then again, when you add Zachary Peacock to the mix, the Yellow Jackets could push Henson around like a greased pig on a frozen pond.
Who wins? If the Yellow Jackets decide to start playing defense again, their superior outside shooting (Glen Rice Jr. and Brian Oliver vs. Will Graves and nobody else) gives them an edge. If Georgia Tech doesn’t guard, as was the case in the team’s two losses to close the season, it could be one and done for Hewitt.
The prediction here is that Tech will guard, force some turnovers and win by about 10 or so.
No. 6 Clemson (21-9, 9-7) vs. No. 11 N.C. State (17-14, 5-11)
9 p.m. or 20 minutes after first game of session ends, whichever comes later
If Clemson plays as flat as it did for much of the game at Wake Forest, the Tigers will head into the NCAA Tournament on a two-game losing streak. But don’t look for that to happen in this one.
N.C. State, despite the strong play of center Tracy Smith, is not nearly the rebounding force that Wake Forest is. Also, you can never know for sure if State’s guards will be great, terrible or somewhere in between.
In their only meeting this season, Clemson’s press pushed the Tigers to a big lead at the RBC Center in mid-January, but the Pack staged a furious comeback –led by backup point guard Julius Mays, of all people – that fell just short, 73-71.
This game could come down to coaching. Will Sidney Lowe have his guards ready to handle the press? Will he have his team collapse on Trevor Booker inside and pack the lane, denying Demontez Stitt penetration and forcing the Tigers to hit perimeter shots?
For Clemson, the question is whether the Tigers execute well enough in the halfcourt offense to set up the press. Andre Young was huge against N.C. State with his three-point shooting in Raleigh. Will someone step up to give Booker and Stitt the help they need to advance to the quarterfinals. The guess here is yes, which gives Clemson the victory.
QUARTERFINALS – Friday, March 12
No. 1 Duke (26-5, 13-3) vs. No. 8 Boston College
Noon
B.C. gave Duke a scare with a second-half comeback in a 66-63 home loss to the Blue Devils in their only meeting this season. Whether this game is close will depend on whether Duke’s big three – John Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith – are hitting their shots and whether Boston College can hang with Duke on the boards.
Despite being the No. 1 seed, Duke shot only 42 percent in league play, though that was good enough for a tie for fifth place. The Blue Devils, at 36 percent, were third best from behind the arc and led the league in rebounding and scoring margin.
Duke also was No. 1 in turnover margin, while Boston College was 11th due to a defense that was one of the two worst in the conference. Duke rolls into the semifinals as turnovers and the Blue Devils big three are too much.
No. 4 Virginia Tech (23-7, 10-6) vs. No. 5 Wake Forest
2 p.m. or 20 minutes after first game, whichever is later
Virginia Tech outhustled Wake Forest for an 87-83 victory on Feb. 16 in Blacksburg. The Hokies, the third worst rebounding team in league play, outrebounded the bigger Deacons, who were the third best off the glass.
The rematch will be in Wake’s backyard, and it would be shocking to see Wake lose the backboard battle again. Malcolm Delaney, who averaged a league-best 22.7 points in ACC play, will be the best scorer on the floor, but Aminu – the league’s rebound leader at 10.3 per game – is capable of being the best player.
Wake was the best defensive team in the conference but couldn’t stop Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech was the best at forcing turnovers but caused only 11 in the only meeting with Wake Forest.
This has the potential to be a really entertaining game. With Ish Smith vs. Delaney and Aminu vs. Tech forward Jeff Allen, the two teams are pretty even. The key could be how much Virginia Tech gets out of Dorenzo Hudson, who sat out the victory at Georgia Tech in the season finale. If he can be effective on his injured foot, the Hokies move on. If not, Wake wins a squeaker.
The guess here is that Hudson will try to play but will not be the same player who averaged nearly 17 points per game in league play. Wake advances in a (very) mild upset.
No. 2 Maryland (23-7, 13-3) vs. No. 7 Georgia Tech
7 p.m.
This preview will be short and sweet. The most important factor in college basketball is guard play. Maryland has ACC Player of the Year Greivis Vasquez, senior sharpshooter Eric Hayes and the improving Sean Moseley. As noted above, Georgia Tech has talent but no consistency.
Georgia Tech should have the edge inside but freshman Jordan Williams will keep Maryland from getting killed in the paint. Maryland, easily the best shooting team in the conference, will make enough shots to beat Georgia Tech.
No. 3 Florida State (22-8, 10-6) vs. No. 6 Clemson
9 p.m. or 20 minutes after earlier game ends
Clemson swept Florida State in the regular season. The Tigers won the battle on the boards against one of the league’s best rebounding teams and held Florida State under 40 percent shooting in both games.
FSU won six of its last eight games, but the two losses were 77-67 at Clemson and 53-50 to the Tigers in Tallahassee. The Seminoles are good on the glass and on defense but lack a true go-to guy, as evidenced by the fact that no FSU players ranked among the top 20 scorers in league play.
This game should have more bricks than the N.C. State campus. That means the boards will be paramount. Seminoles center Salomon Alabi, forward Chris Singleton and point guard Derwin Kitchen rank among the top 20 rebounders in ACC play. Clemson struggled on the glass for much of the season, most recently in the team’s season-ending loss at Wake Forest.
This is a matchup of two teams that have never won an ACC Tournament, but have each advanced to the finals once over the past two years. Florida State made the run last season. The same thing won’t happen this year. Clemson beats the Seminoles again in a tight, physical game.
SEMIFINALS – Saturday, March 13
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 Wake Forest
1:30 p.m.
Duke beat Wake Forest 90-70 way back on Jan. 17 as the Plumlee brothers pounded Wake Forest’s big front line. This time, the Duke big man to watch for is Brian Zoubek. The one-time punch line is now hitting the glass and kicking, well, you know. The 7-footer with the Treebeard like facial hair has turned into Duke’s version of Dennis Rodman. Zoubek has been a monster on the offensive glass over the past month, and the Demon Deacons don’t block out well.
Wake has played the stingiest defense in the conference but Duke will get enough second and third shots to move on to yet another final.
No. 2 Maryland vs. No. 6 Clemson
4 p.m.
The Tigers handed Maryland one of its three ACC losses – a 62-53 victory at Clemson that was avenged, 88-79, Feb. 24 as the Terrapins stormed back from a nine-point halftime deficit.
Clemson owned the glass in the two meetings, but Maryland scorched the Tigers for 54 percent shooting in Game Two after shooting under 35 percent in the first game. Clemson will keep it close as Trevor Booker and Jerai Grant do some damage in the paint. But Maryland’s superior guard play will prove decisive.
CHAMPIONSHIP – Sunday, March 14
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 2 Maryland
1 p.m.
Did you expect anything else? These have clearly been the ACC’s two best teams in 2010, and they are the only two with a realistic shot of making NCAA Tournament noise.
Speaking of noise, Maryland got a huge boost from its home fans in last week’s 79-72 victory over Duke on March 3 – one of the best ACC games played this season. Duke clobbered Maryland 77-56 in Cameron in a January game that ACC Player of the Year Vasquez would rather forget.
What happens in the rubber match? Maryland is a better shooting team, but Duke defends the 3-point line better than anyone else in the conference. The Blue Devils also have the advantage up front.
This should be another great game as Maryland tries to win Coach Gary Williams his second ACC title. The first one came via a huge comeback to knock off Duke in 2004. Whether Maryland again tops its most hated rival to win the conference crown will depend on how well Vasquez plays.
Greivis and the Vasquez-ettes vs. Duke’s big three. Coach K in another big game against Gary Williams. Two bitter rivals playing for the right to be called champion.
Who will win that right? Can’t go against the Blue Devils on a neutral floor in North Carolina – especially not against a program that has seen more than its fair share of disappointments in the Tar Heel state.
Look for Coach K to cuss out the refs and for Williams to cuss out his assistant coaches. Look for Scheyer, Singler and Smith to all break the 20-point barrier. Look for Vasquez to flirt with 30 points and 30 shot attempts, with 10 assists and five turnovers for good measure. Watch Duke score the winning basket after an offensive rebound by the bigger, whiter Rodman (aka Zoubek). Watch Vasquez’s last second prayer of a shot go unanswered as Vasquez hits the ground, the refs swallow their whistles, and Gary Williams finally gets so mad he rips off his shirt like Hulk Hogan and chases the officials back to the locker room.
Duke wins, 83-82.
Excellent analysis & great read! I would like to note that Martice (Mo) Miller is Georgia Tech’s current PG. Martice Moore played for GT in the mid-90s until he transferred to Colorado. Last I heard he was playing SlamBall somewhere…
That’s my wife, ladies and gentlemen! Great preview blog. Hard to dispute the predictions.
Martice Moore. Ack. I even warned myself not to do that, and I still did it. Great catch, Dawn.
Nice catch Dawn! Hard to believe but we’re starting out 0-2. Can’t believe Wake.
I can’t believe Wake’s abysmal performance either. Complete inability to handle a zone defense. And Mike, I’m from Atlanta and went to at least one GT b-ball game a year while I lived there, including a few with Martice Moore. I think it’s wild that Tech has had two players named Martice – it’s not like it’s a common name!