Through three weeks of the NFL season the story is starting to become clear. We’ve got a pretty good idea of who the top level teams are (Pittsburgh, Green Bay, N.Y. Jets and a few more). And we also have a pretty good idea of who the bottom level teams are (Cleveland, Carolina, Oakland and a few more). But there are still a large number of teams somewhere in the middle.
Week four brings the first round of byes for the 2010 NFL season. Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota and Tampa Bay have the week off. I’m not sure if it is because of the byes or maybe just a scheduling quirk but I had a hard time finding important games to highlight this week. I’m going with only five instead of the usual six.
So, let’s take a look at the five NFL games I think are most important in week four:
I want winners!
5. San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1:00 pm
Could this be the last stand for the 49ers? Everything is working against them going into this game. They are the most disappointing team in the NFL through the first three weeks of the 2010 season. They fired their offensive coordinator this week. They are coming off a bad loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, while the Falcons are coming off a huge win over the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome. And to top it all off, they are a pacific time zone team traveling to the eastern time zone to play at 1:00.
The Niners win if: They can convert on third downs. They were atrocious on third downs while being dominated by Seattle (1-15) and Kansas City (1-15)
The Falcons win if: The running game stays strong and they keep the Niners defense on the field and wear them down.
The Falcons could be in danger of a let down after an emotional win over the Saints. The Niners should be extremely hungry for a win. But I think they’ll still be starving after this weekend. The Falcons are a strong team with an improving defense and a solid offense. They should have very little trouble with a 49ers team that is still trying to figure out who they want to be.
4. Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:15 pm
This game has already started to get the majority of the hype for the weekend. There are plenty of storylines here but the biggest ones will be the return of Donovan McNabb to Philadelphia and the comeback of Michael Vick. Let’s start with Vick. He’s been impressive, but let’s put it in context. He’s played very well against the defenses of Detroit and Jacksonville. They could prove to be the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The good news for the Eagles and Vick is that the Redskins pass defense has been porous as well – they are currently ranked 31st in the NFL in opponents passing yardage. On the other sideline McNabb will have his chance to give the town that never appreciated him a reason to wish he was still there. The Redskins currently have the seventh best passing game in the NFL and when McNabb has had time he’s been good. Their offensive line needs rookie left tackle Trent Williams to return from injury.
The Redskins win if: Their secondary can contain the speedy Eagles receivers and prevent them from making big plays.
The Eagles win if: Their pass rush can get to McNabb early and often. They are currently leading the NFL with 11 sacks.
I’ve heavily considered picking the Redskins. But after watching them play the Rams last week I just can’t do it. I think the Eagles pass rush will exploit the weak Redskins O-line and that Andy Reid will draw up some nice plays to get his playmakers in position to blow by the slow Redskins linebackers.
3. New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Monday, 8:30 pm
Monday night should be very interesting as these two AFC East rivals match up in south Florida. After starting 2-0 the Dolphins bandwagon lost some weight when they dropped a home game to the New York Jets on Sunday night. While the game was certainly close, it was surprising how freely the Miami defense gave up yardage to the Jets. On the offensive side of the ball Chad Henne was impressive and seemed to solidify an important bond with go-to-guy Brandon Marshall that should lead to success down the road. The Patriots lo0ked very impressive in a week one win over the Bengals but have struggled in losing to the Jets and beating Buffalo in a game that was too close for comfort. Before the season started I thought New England’s defense would be better than expected but they’ve played to expectations and are 20th in the NFL against the rush and 25th against the pass.
The Patriots win if: They can force a couple of turnovers. The extra possessions should gave them all they need to outscore the Dolphins.
The Dolphins win if: They limit the catches of Randy Moss. These teams split their two games last year. The Patriots won the first game, with Moss catching six balls for 147 yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins limited Moss to just two catches in the second game and won it.
Miami needs this game more than New England does. If they lose they will have lost both home games against their AFC rivals. Having said that, I like the Patriots in this one. Bill Belichick and his staff will have had plenty of time to prepare for the Dolphins and I think Tom Brady will surgically pick them apart.
2. Chicago Bears at New York Giants
Sunday, 8:20 pm
This is a matchup of two teams who couldn’t be farther apart on the spectrum of happiness with their performance so far this season. The Bears have outperformed the expectations of all but their most optimistic fans. At 3-0, with solid wins over Dallas and Green Bay, Chicago looks like a legitimate playoff contender. And the Giants, well disappointing and underperforming are probably not strong enough. The Giants beat a bad Carolina team in week one before losing consecutively to Indianapolis and Tennessee. It’s last weeks loss to the Titans that is most disturbing. New York fell apart at the seams, self-destructed and were defeated by a team they certainly could have beaten.
The Bears win if: They can keep the Giants pass rush off Jay Cutler. The Giants only have six sacks but that’s a misleading stat because the teams they’ve played are run-heavy (Carolina and Tennessee) or led by a superhuman at quarterback (Indianapolis).
The Giants win if: They can hold on to the ball. They turned the ball over three times in each of their two losses.
I don’t want to overlook the Bears again, but I’ve got to go with the Giants. They’ve historically played well with their backs against the wall. Granted, they don’t have the leadership they’ve had in the past, but similar to what I mentioned about the 49ers above, if they lose this game it could be the last slide down the slippery slope.
1. Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1:00 pm
The battle for the toughest division in the NFL starts in earnest this weekend when the Ravens travel to Pittsburgh. The Steelers have exceeded expectations by winning their first three games without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Their defense, with 10 forced turnovers and 10 sacks, and their running game, ranked third in the NFL, have led the way. Meanwhile the Ravens pass defense has been excellent, ranking first in the NFL, but they were gouged last week in the running game by Cleveland’s Peyton Hillis who ran for 144 yards on 22 carries. Baltimore is a game behind Pittsburgh in the standings right now, but if they can steal this one they’ll have a leg up with a win on enemy soil and a return game coming at home later in the year.
The Ravens win if: They can stop the run – it’s that simple.
The Steelers win if: They can score a defensive touchdown. They’ll need the points from the defense.
I picked the Ravens to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and I greatly underestimated the Steelers ability to win with their defense. I think it will catch up with them here, as long as Ray Rice is healthy. Baltimore has the defense to play with Pittsburgh while also having an offense that should be much better than the three the Steelers have faced to this point.
Who do you like in these five games? Let me know in the comments section below.
Photo source: SD Dirk
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